Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 157.677815 184.065164 214.689373 253.143478 300.540619 357.574227 432.196223
2025-11-16 121.047384 152.208775 191.970965 247.372598 324.107288 429.020506 587.635772
2025-11-23 99.449371 131.636628 175.537008 241.511815 341.305225 492.180534 749.303010
2025-11-30 91.064095 126.080965 176.752070 258.349758 392.452968 616.128732 1046.969970
2025-12-07 81.447839 116.733519 170.199279 261.169219 421.183933 711.204282 1333.638331
2025-12-14 74.579977 110.209395 166.462962 267.100408 455.704481 825.957042 1711.369835
2025-12-21 67.802574 102.757682 159.871499 266.489353 477.580888 922.502678 2098.458481
2025-12-28 65.230722 101.657146 163.491956 284.624395 540.190196 1126.386435 2880.427469
2026-01-04 62.265843 99.445733 164.733087 298.313010 597.143771 1339.868265 3853.778495
2026-01-11 59.219240 96.674336 164.480238 308.839275 649.922552 1565.518975 5072.537776
2026-01-18 55.886236 92.980468 161.942015 314.015236 691.457210 1779.446308 6476.086170
2026-01-25 52.462274 88.735368 157.756804 314.776060 722.159735 1976.209122 8050.151453
2026-02-01 48.485252 83.193361 150.593528 308.203715 733.714566 2124.963155 9647.021208
2026-02-08 44.930578 78.127308 143.826815 301.495993 743.649734 2276.880494 11546.063098
2026-02-15 41.722251 73.425665 137.258227 294.125899 749.804070 2420.341366 13693.387553
2026-02-22 41.213368 73.994699 141.924615 315.705619 852.085046 3021.930902 21010.705760
2026-03-01 39.331453 71.598024 139.812468 319.328571 898.046660 3415.901430 27971.372845
2026-03-08 37.889471 69.967556 139.212029 326.949332 961.010482 3949.406711 39191.586272
2026-03-15 36.012811 67.254709 135.813896 326.163970 993.745630 4356.388919 51269.024605
2026-03-22 35.743323 67.938428 140.445611 349.524151 1128.987528 5516.812501 88549.110076
2026-03-29 35.102665 67.749470 142.958825 367.219733 1250.738730 6771.189046 150349.111414
2026-04-05 34.257354 67.025665 144.063378 380.862907 1362.598242 8141.136777 255787.556913
2026-04-12 33.119132 65.539568 143.067320 387.582625 1446.811170 9440.264043 418815.232909